Those of you who are B stats students (or less) like me might need a little reminding.
An average is created by some things being higher and some things being lower.
|actually not that far off average|
Most days are going to fall in between the green lines--that's one standard deviation. And those things are all pretty ok for Courage in general.
The blue lines are where things get concerning--that's two standard deviations and you'll notice the incidence drops a lot. It's still not mission-critical MAYBE (or maybe it is), but something is definitely up.
Anything past the blue lines is RED FLASHING LIGHT URGENT DROP EVERYTHING AND CALL THE VET/call trainer to sell horse.
|has opinions even when drugged|
This curve is very specific to an individual horse. I swear some horses are a freaking flat line. (There's one at my barn. Cool horse. Odd.)
As we all know by now, Courage is a complicated, sensitive horse who not only wears his emotions on his sleeve, but also has OPINIONZ about EVERYTHING. The math I do every day is simple--do those opinions fall within a standard deviation of a Courage? If yes, proceed. If no, think it through.
That's how we got body work and teeth done--the OPINIONZ had escalated outside the blue lines and were rapidly accelerating into the green ones.
There's more to it though--the Courage I had last year actually had this inside one standard deviation.
Yeah don't miss that at all.
The horse I have this year has deescalated to this:
|my apologies to my trainer for making her ride it|
But not only is the horse a moving target--so are my tolerances. This whole equation only works if his standard deviation fits into what I can deal with. So to some people, the first fail picture is "whatevs NBD" and to others, it's "OMFG NO SELL IT NOW". I fall into the category of "I rode it enough times that I know I can, but I'd rather not".
The second one is pretty hard to be upset about. Yes, Courage didn't want to play in a lesson. Yes, he was a pissy pants and hard to deal with. But meh. Instead of saying "CANT WONT HATE YOU ALL NOT TURNING RIGHT EFF YOU BAI" he's like "screw you i don't want to connect my hind end and soften".
I mean, it's still not a great attitude, but it's hella easier to work with than a full fledged flail. (You're welcome.)
Frankly, when I compare the two shots, which were taken at roughly the same time of year almost exactly 12 months apart, I get a little excited. Look! Things are changing! Maybe someday they'll be good!
And that's the world as I see it. You see how I didn't even use any numbers to talk about math? It's like how I talk about dressage and never say "outside rein". #magic